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How to play Argonauts
Are you listening, Oh you gaming industry execs? If you’re a CEO reading this, or a CFO, and you’re struggling with shut down casinos and mounting debt, I’m talking to you. You have only a few months at most to protect your companies from a hyperinflationary nuclear bomb that is about to go off and destroy everything in its path. The fuse is being lit as I write this. I will now describe the fuse.
About 18 months ago I wrote this weird, esoteric, wacky article. I made the case that once U.S. dollar interest rates went negative, all commodities would warp into backwardation. Meaning, the spot prices for all commodities would become more expensive than their futures price. This is now happening. Almost all commodities are now in persistent backwardation. All grains, sugar, lumber, and cotton; energy including natural gas and both Brent and WTI crude oil; base metals including copper, tin, and iron ore. They are all in backwardation now, and some have been that way for months now. The CRB commodities index is now climbing at its fastest pace ever, doubling since March.
And this is with various forms of lockdowns persisting in Europe and the U.S., which should mute industrial demand for commodities. Paper currencies are dying. That’s what’s happening, pure and simple. And they are about to get their death blow.
How to play Argonauts
During the second half of 2026, prediction markets have endured the wrath of a plethora of state governors, most notably Kathy Hochul of New York.
As the NFL season begins, a state in close proximity to the New England Patriots became the latest to attempt to curb the influence of the trading platforms. On 10 September, one day after the Pats’ season-opening loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont addressed the growth of the markets during a speech in downtown Hartford. On the same day, the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection issued cease-and-desist orders to nine unregulated operators, including Polymarket, Robinhood and Underdog Predict.
“Prediction markets have branded themselves as legal and safe, but the reality is they are not adhering to Connecticut’s consumer protection standards,” Lamont wrote in a statement.
How to play Argonauts
The transformation has not eliminated all of Cubeia’s concerns. And inevitably some coders are missing their original role.
“We still have people who loved the coding part – solving problems with code and writing beautiful code. They’re struggling with the change. For some people an important part of their work that they genuinely loved is now gone.”
There are also strategic questions around dependence on AI providers.
