Zombie Queen

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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.

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“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.

The result is an emerging ecosystem that looks less like millions of customers casually trading predictions with one another and more like an outsourced sportsbook trading room. Exchanges own the platform and recruit the customers; specialist firms price the risk and provide the money needed to make those markets function.

About Zombie Queen

Yahoo said Polymarket is still an advertising partner and suggested the two could collaborate on other projects in the future. Polymarket has not provided any public explanation for the end of the data partnership. 

The news comes as prediction market operators continue to form alliances with major media outlets. These deals allow news outlets to embed event contract data into their reporting and offer prediction platforms more visibility to investors and news audiences. 

Polymarket has developed its media presence elsewhere. In January, it signed a deal with Dow Jones to provide its prediction market data to several of the publisher’s consumer platforms. The deal covers publications including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, MarketWatch and Investor’s Business Daily.