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“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”

For now, the growth provides room for multiple market makers. Marantelli expects margins to “stay good during the growth period” before contracting as competition intensifies. The more complex RFQ and parlay markets may offer the best protection against that compression.

The result is an emerging ecosystem that looks less like millions of customers casually trading predictions with one another and more like an outsourced sportsbook trading room. Exchanges own the platform and recruit the customers; specialist firms price the risk and provide the money needed to make those markets function.

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“Consumers are being presented with more options for how they can participate in online gaming, creating a more competitive landscape where a seamless digital experience is increasingly becoming part of the value proposition,” said Jason Wolf, president of Fullstory, in a statement. “The brands that understand how consumers are navigating, comparing, and engaging with their platforms in real-time can identify where friction is getting in the way of trust and retention.”

A quarter of respondents said they use both prediction markets and sportsbooks depending on the event they’re considering wagering on. While the 35% reduced use figure may sound like a warning shot to gaming companies, a variety of other studies and surveys indicate that when bettors can choose between a sportsbook and an all-or-nothing exchange, they frequently opt for the former.

While sports event contracts are currently the tentpole category for the prediction market industry, data indicate bettors and traders are embracing other categories.

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The move came shortly after the Senate declined to advance the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. The procedural vote on September 15 rejected it with 49-50, not meeting the 60 votes required to move forward. 

The CFTC’s move gives the agency a chance to pursue parts of a crypto market framework under its existing authority, rather than waiting for Congress to resolve the broader legislative debate. 

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig signaled that possibility back in August. The agency was considering how its existing powers could be used to create a dedicated market structure for digital assets that are standard, he said.